Core Idea
Human success has already led to the creation of 8 billion people, driven by the fossil fuel pulse. They exist. They breathe. They require roughly 22 trillion kilocalories per day to survive.
This staggering achievement in human reproduction, growing from 1 billion to 8 billion in just 200 years, was only possible because we learned to turn ancient energy into food, shelter, and medicine.
The mindful sceptic recognises what this means.
When environmental activists call for degrowth or resource reduction, they are arguing against the metabolic requirements of actual humans. When sustainability advocates promote living within planetary boundaries, they are fighting against the biological reality that billions of people need resources to stay alive.
Such conspicuous success means we are forced to use natural resources to support the people we have made from the fossil fuel pulse. This is not greed or moral failure. It is thermodynamics.
Counterpoint
Degrowth rhetoric ignores existing population needs. The standard environmental narrative suggests we can solve ecological overshoot through voluntary simplicity, consumption reduction, and a return to pre-industrial lifestyles.
It is a compelling story for those already comfortable, promising moral purity through elegant restraint.
But the mathematics are unforgiving.
Even if every person in rich countries reduced their consumption by 90%, we would still face the fundamental challenge of feeding, housing, and providing basic medical care to 8 billion humans. The energy requirements for human metabolism alone, before accounting for shelter, clothing, transport, or communication, represent an irreducible minimum that nature cannot provide without massive intervention.
The uncomfortable truth is that degrowth romanticism treats existing humans as abstractions. It imagines population as a policy variable rather than recognising that each of those 8 billion represents a biological system requiring continuous resource inputs to avoid death.
The fossil fuel pulse didn’t just enable industrial development. It enabled human reproduction on an unprecedented scale. Now those humans exist, and their biological requirements cannot be wished away by good intentions or environmental philosophy. The choice is stark: find ways to maintain resource flows to support the existing population, or accept that billions will die.
Thought Challenge
Calculate the baseline… Research the minimum caloric requirements for human survival—roughly 1,500 calories per person per day. Multiply by the current global population. This is the irreducible energy minimum that must be extracted from natural systems daily, regardless of any environmental philosophy. Ask yourself: where will this energy come from if not from current industrial agriculture powered by fossil fuels?
Map the dependency web… For one day, track every resource that keeps you alive from food (requiring soil, water, fertiliser, transport), shelter (materials, heating/cooling), clean water (infrastructure, treatment), medicine (manufacturing, distribution), and even your personal transport options. Now imagine this web supporting 8 billion people simultaneously. What would “living within planetary boundaries” actually require for this system?
A Reflection
The deepest environmental taboo is acknowledging that human success has created biological constraints that override moral preferences.
We cannot lose the people who already exist. We cannot reduce the resource requirements of human metabolism through good intentions.
Being a mindful sceptic means accepting this uncomfortable arithmetic. The fossil fuel pulse has ended the luxury of environmental purity. We must now find ways to support the population we have created, not debate whether we should have created it.
Evidence Support
Lal, R. (2009). Soil degradation as a reason for inadequate human nutrition. Food Security, 1(1), 45-57.
TL;DR… demonstrates that soil degradation through erosion, loss of organic matter, nutrient depletion, salinisation, and pollution directly impairs food quantity and quality, thereby contributing to undernutrition and declining human health. The study highlights the feedback between poor soil management and declining yields, emphasising the critical link between healthy soils and food security.
Relevance to insight… degraded soils lead not only to yield reductions but also to nutrient deficiencies in staple foods, making soil health a pillar of both food security and global human health. This paper directly addresses the systemic connection between soil function and society’s ability to “feed everyone well,” encapsulating the core of the insight.
FAO, I. T. P. S. (2015). Status of the world’s soil resources (SWSR)–main report. Food and agriculture organization of the United Nations and intergovernmental technical panel on soils, Rome, Italy, 650.
TL;DR… global assessment documents the status, trends, and drivers of soil degradation, estimating that one-third of the world’s soils are moderately to highly degraded due to erosion, depletion, contamination, sealing, and salinisation. The report provides quantitative and qualitative evidence of how these processes threaten agricultural productivity, biodiversity, water quality, and ultimately, food security.
Relevance to insight… international benchmark for understanding the scale of soil degradation, synthesising peer-reviewed science and national data. It is directly relevant as it offers quantitative evidence that soil degradation is already a global risk to food security, with practical recommendations.
Amundson, R., Berhe, A. A., Hopmans, J. W., Olson, C., Sztein, A. E., & Sparks, D. L. (2015). Soil and human security in the 21st century. Science, 348(6235), 1261071.
TL;DR… soils underpin all agricultural productivity, yet rapid degradation, urbanisation, and resource exploitation threaten long-term food and energy security. The review synthesises evidence on erosion, nutrient mining, and land degradation, projecting that soil mismanagement could undermine the capacity to feed the planet’s growing population.
Relevance to insight… makes an explicit case for soil as a central factor in global security, not just food production. Its broad synthesis of evidence directly supports the argument that neglecting soils jeopardises the future stability of societies.
Montanarella, L., Pennock, D. J., McKenzie, N., Badraoui, M., Chude, V., Baptista, I., ... & Vargas, R. (2016). World’s soils are under threat. SOIL, 2(1), 79-82.
TL;DR… evidence for threats against the world’s soils, focusing on erosion, salinisation, loss of organic carbon, and other degradation processes. It discusses the implications for food security, ecosystem services, and sustainability, calling for policy and management interventions.
Relevance to insight… presents consensus among global soil experts on the severity and urgency of soil degradation. Its relevance lies in connecting soil threats to global food security, making its findings central to arguments about the existential risk of ignoring soil health.
Sánchez, P. A., & Swaminathan, M. S. (2005). Hunger in Africa: The link between unhealthy people and unhealthy soils. The Lancet, 365(9457), 442-444.
TL;DR… vicious cycle of soil degradation and human malnutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa, detailing how nutrient-impoverished soils fail to supply adequate food, contributing to hunger and poor national development outcomes. The authors emphasise the necessity of restoring soil fertility for breaking the poverty and hunger trap.
Relevance to insight… soil degradation is not an abstract or distant concern but a present-day reality, particularly in regions where food insecurity is most acute. The research provides clear evidence of how soil health is fundamental to sustaining agriculture and alleviating hunger, reinforcing the insight’s core claim.