Beyond the Glazed Eyes

Why Brilliant Ideas Fall Flat And What to Do About It

Have you ever had that sinking feeling when you try to explain a brilliant idea only to watch your listeners' eyes glaze over?

You're not alone.

Decades as an ecologist, researcher, and entrepreneur taught me many things and this truth…

Some ideas, no matter how well presented, will fall flat with most audiences most of the time.

This is not about a communication failure, choosing the wrong PowerPoint template or a nervous delivery… no matter what the comms folk tell you. Through hundreds of presentations across wildly different audiences, I've noticed a consistent pattern that only about 10% of any audience truly grasps a new concept, regardless of how it's presented.

Let me show you what I mean.

Picture a classroom of seven-year-olds. Thirty cheeky faces calm down to hear a new idea. Three of them are smiling even more when you finish. The rest are bored silly, having switched off at the first complex word.

Now, take that same idea into a year 12 classroom. The same thing happens. Three adolescents hang off your every word while the rest scroll through TikTok.

It could be just kids.

Try a handful of neighbours at a barbecue. One stops drinking their beer because they're so intrigued. The rest are gossiping about last night's reality TV.

But here's where it gets worrying.

Present to a dozen senior civil servants who are directors of departments and advisors to government ministers. Yep, I have done this many times, and it has the same result. Only one nods with understanding while the rest check their emails.

Obviously, I only have anecdotal evidence, but I've tested this pattern repeatedly with a complex but practical idea I developed called Afterbefore.

Here is the elevator pitch.

Soil health is vital to production and quality produce, but how do you know how healthy it is and if food production is doing it any favours?

Model the soil system with its quirks and management history, the before part. Then, use climate models and future management options to forecast a suite of production counterfactuals, including business as usual, in the after part.

And for the kids… understand the past to see the future.

This method for predicting soil productivity using historical data and climate models would help farmers make better decisions about land management and help those bureaucrats understand rural economics and ways to improve food security.

It's not rocket science, but it requires simultaneously holding multiple ideas in mind.

Time after time, regardless of audience education level, professional background, or presentation method, just 10% or less showed genuine understanding and engagement.

This matters because humanity faces unprecedented challenges that need fresh thinking and bold solutions. From climate change to food security, soil degradation to biodiversity loss, name your crisis; we can't afford to miss good ideas simply because we've forgotten how to spot them.

What if our biggest challenge is not generating solutions but recognising good ideas when they appear?

Conventional wisdom is that recognition of an idea begins with clarity in both the presentation and the idea's potential. Good ideas stand out because they are easy to understand, even when they address complex problems.

After comes before.

All I was suggesting is that history is an excellent guide to the future. Not a new idea at all.

Convention also says a great idea should naturally lead to a ‘lightbulb’ moment, where the listener sees the value or impact it can generate.

I can’t turn the lights on for anyone. They have to do that themselves. But anyone who has held soil between their fingers has an inkling of what I am getting at and knows that healthy soil is more valuable than degraded soil.

Originality is another key factor for an idea.

A good idea brings something new, whether a fresh approach, a novel perspective, or an innovative solution. It doesn’t necessarily have to be unique but should provide a meaningful improvement or twist on existing concepts.

A buddy and colleague at the University of Botswana would say there was no such thing as a new idea. They were all rehashed.

Afterbefore is a twist on the conventional use of soil models and, as far as I can tell, a novel perspective and, we think, an original juxtaposition. Plus, it has only become possible with modern computational power.

A good idea is practical and relevant.

It should address a genuine need or problem, either improving efficiency, enhancing a system, or offering a new method with real-world applications. It must have potential—whether that’s in solving an immediate issue, driving long-term benefits, or aligning with larger goals or trends.

Show me a farmer who doesn't want to know what is happening to his soil, and I will gladly fall off my chair.

A good idea invites excitement or positive curiosity, driving further exploration and development.

When the Afterbefore idea came together, the world of IOT sensors, satellite monitoring and big data computation was with us as nascent but rapidly emerging technologies. We knew this and were excited by how the before and after predictions could be validated.

We didn't anticipate how AI engines could extend the mapping, pattern matching and counterfactual options. Today, the possibilities are endless.

If you are still with me, you are probably scratching around for why we got crickets when this idea went in front of decision-makers.

It could be the psychological barriers.

I can give you cognitive bias, particularly confirmation bias, when a person focuses on information that supports pre-existing beliefs or expectations, ignoring or undervaluing ideas that challenge them.

Suppose the current view is that agriculture is doing fine off the back of inputs and a gazillion fossil fuel slaves. In that case, you might overlook ideas that don’t immediately fit within that framework, even if they have significant potential.

Fear of failure or the unknown can make something new seem risky. The potential for failure or uncertainty about implementing the idea can create a sense of apprehension. This fear can prevent you from giving an idea the attention it deserves, limiting creative exploration and leading to missed opportunities.

Mental rigidity, or fixed thinking patterns, is another constraint. I know this was a factor with the crusty bureaucrats. They have a set way of approaching problems and evaluating solutions that put the feelings of their minister first. They lacked the flexibility and openness critical for recognising the value of a good idea, especially one that is unconventional or outside the norm.

I could go on, but that would be depressing.

There was an upside.

Realising that the idea was insufficient to get traction led me down a fascinating path, exploring how humans process new concepts and why some people seem naturally better equipped to evaluate novel ideas.

One answer lies in becoming a mindful sceptic, someone who combines critical thinking with open-minded awareness.

Mindful sceptics share some distinctive traits; they…

• question assumptions while remaining receptive to new evidence

• evaluate ideas based on merit rather than source or popularity

• maintain intellectual humility while exercising rigorous analysis

• seek understanding before judgment

Most importantly, this kind of thinking is rare, about as rare as those three people in every thirty who ‘get it’.

The good news?

These skills can be developed. Through dedicated practice and the right mental frameworks, anyone can improve their ability to recognise and evaluate new ideas. It's not about being more intelligent; it's about thinking differently.

Now, at least, I understand a little more about why good ideas might fall short of their potential.

And, as I am at the wrong end of a career to push entrepreneurship again, I am choosing to spread the word on mindful scepticism.

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Want to learn more about becoming a mindful sceptic and developing your idea-evaluation skills?

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While only one person might initially fully grasp a new idea, that individual can change everything.

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